quarta-feira, 9 de setembro de 2026

The Nightmare Behind AI-Assisted Science

For nearly a century, one of mathematics’ most formidable questions defied the world’s greatest minds. An army of AI agents may have solved it in less than four days. OpenAI deployed around 10,000 autonomous agents, powered by an internal model not yet available to the public, which produced a solution to the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem in just 88 hours. They exchanged 2.7 million messages and generated approximately 130 billion output tokens; formalising and verifying the proof in Lean required only another 17 hours. Although Lean can certify every step of the formal proof, mathematicians must still confirm that the statement encoded in the system corresponds exactly to the original problem. If they do, this will not merely be the most important proof ever produced by AI: it will mark the moment when machines entered the highest realm of mathematical discovery. https://www.quantamagazine.org/ai-has-solved-one-of-maths-1-million-millennium-prize-problems-20260908/

The achievement is, however, surrounded by a profoundly disturbing dispute. OpenAI acknowledges that it launched the operation after hearing rumours that two Millennium Prize Problems had been solved, rumours subsequently linked to the still-unpublished work of Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge. According to Buckmaster, they had used OpenAI models and placed all their project drafts in Codex sessions. OpenAI states that neither its researchers nor its agents specifically accessed this work, but admits that it cannot rule out the possibility that de-identified data derived from their use of its products helped improve the models. Both groups also relied heavily on the mathematical programme previously developed by Diego Córdoba and Luis Martínez-Zoroa, further complicating the attribution of priority and scientific credit.

This episode extends far beyond mathematics. The same company that provides scientists with research tools also owns the models, computing infrastructure and financial resources required to transform itself almost instantly into their competitor. Once it becomes aware of a promising opportunity, it can mobilise thousands of agents and spend several million dollars, resources beyond the reach of any academic research team. Even if no improper access occurred, the asymmetry of power has become impossible to ignore.

This episode gives disturbing concrete form to the civilizational choice at the heart of my manifesto, Civilizational Futures. AI can serve as “intellectual scaffolding”, liberating intelligence and accelerating discovery; but when a handful of corporations controls the models, computing infrastructure and armies of autonomous agents—while receiving scientists’ unpublished work—it acquires the power not merely to assist science, but to appropriate it. The Navier–Stokes episode may therefore be both a triumph of machine-augmented reason and a warning that humanity’s greatest instrument for distributing intellectual power could become its most formidable mechanism for concentrating it.

In this emerging order, the scientist supplies the question, the drafts, the corrections and perhaps even the decisive insight; the platform absorbs the value, unleashes an army of agents and emerges claiming the breakthrough. The question is therefore no longer whether AI can conduct science. It is whether scientists are paying to train the very machines and enrich the very corporations, that may strip them of priority, authorship and control over their own discoveries. Until enforceable safeguards exist, entering unpublished research into a commercial AI system should be treated for what it may become, a transfer of scientific power from its creator to a vastly more powerful corporate rival.

PS -  That warning has now been corroborated from inside the AI industry itself. Jacob Coxon, who has just resigned from Anthropic after a stint at OpenAI, explicitly cited the Navier–Stokes breakthrough while accusing both companies of racing towards self-improving superintelligence and “gambling with our lives.” Evan Hubinger, a current lead in Anthropic’s alignment division, said Coxon was right—and conceded that the company still has no plan for aligning superintelligence. When the builders themselves speak this way, leaving such power in private corporate hands can no longer be defended as innovation policy. It becomes the civilizational gamble at the heart of Civilizational Futures: whether AI liberates human intelligence or concentrates unprecedented power in a handful of corporations answerable to no one.

terça-feira, 8 de setembro de 2026

Study Reveals That Almost 30 Million Lives Will Be Sacrificed to Protect the Ultra-Rich

 

In a previous post, An Ethical Wealth Limit: Utrecht University's 10-Million-Euro Hypothesis, I recalled that in December 2019 I had proposed limiting individual wealth to $190 million—approximately 10,000 times the annual world GDP per capita. Ingrid Robeyns, Professor of Ethics at Utrecht University, subsequently went much further, proposing a political limit of €10 million and a personal ethical limit of just €1 million because extreme wealth threatens democracy and climate justice. A study newly published in The Lancet now makes the indictment even more serious, while fortunes beyond any conceivable human need remain protected, redistributing a tiny fraction of them could prevent millions of premature deaths.

The researchers analysed data from 59 low- and lower-middle-income countries between 2002 and 2021 and modelled ten redistribution policies capable of compensating for drastic cuts in official development assistance. The authors then estimated what could happen between 2026 and 2030 if taxes on concentrated wealth were used to prevent essential health and development programmes from being dismantled. The most striking result concerns an annual 3% tax on ultra-high-net-worth individuals. According to the model, it could avert approximately 29.5 million deaths by 2030, including almost 3.5 million deaths among children under five; even the lower bound of the uncertainty interval exceeds 20 million lives. 

The study does not propose abolishing billionaires, much less imposing Robeyns’s €10-million ceiling. Someone with €10 billion would retain €9.7 billion after paying a 3% tax, hardly a descent into poverty. A society that protects the last 3% of a billionaire’s fortune while accepting the destruction of programmes on which millions of lives depend is not defending freedom or rewarding merit. It is declaring that the limitless accumulation of the ultra-rich matters more than the survival of the poor. Extreme wealth is therefore not a harmless private achievement, refusing to tax it can carry a potentially enormous and now quantifiable human cost.

PS - In March 2024, in Carbon Manslaughter: Holding Billionaires Accountable for Their Role in Accelerating Climate CatastrophesI argued that the extravagant carbon emissions of billionaires can transform extreme wealth into a form of manslaughter. The new Lancet study now exposes a second potential body count: not from the carbon the ultra-rich emit, but from the millions of people who could be kept alive with a tiny fraction of the fortunes our societies, through political cowardice, institutional complicity and moral bankruptcy, consider untouchable.

Novas evidências desmascaram a notória pseudoexcelência da ciência portuguesa

 

Na sequência de uma bizarra avaliação das unidades de investigação, na qual a proibição do recurso a métricas, que critiquei repetidamente, e que culminou numa extraordinária anormalidade estatística de cerca de 75% das unidades de investigação terem sido classificadas como Muito Bom ou Excelente, Portugal foi oficialmente consagrado como uma "potência" científica mundial. Acredite quem quiser neste milagre científico nacional.

Sucede, porém, que continuam a acumular-se evidências da reduzida competitividade internacional da ciência portuguesa. Primeiro, Portugal ocupa apenas a 33.ª posição num exigente indicador internacional de excelência científica, perigosamente próximo da Bulgária, pela qual, a manter-se a atual trajetória, será ultrapassado nos próximos anos. Segundo, as universidades portuguesas mais bem classificadas ficaram abaixo de uma universidade argentina no Ranking de Shanghai de 2026 e agora, nos resultados das milionárias ERC Starting Grants, anunciados há poucos dias, Portugal surge abaixo da Roménia e da Grécia, como mostra a lista apresentada no final deste post.

Como se explica, então, que tamanha concentração de unidades oficialmente Muito Boas ou Excelentes não tenha conseguido afastar Portugal da proximidade embaraçosa da pobre Bulgária num indicador de excelência científica, não tenha permitido colocar uma única universidade portuguesa à frente de uma universidade da pobre argentina, e agora não tenha conseguido conquistar mais do que uma única bolsa milionária das ERC Starting Grants?

A solução para a falta de competitividade internacional da ciência portuguesa é conhecida e, no essencial, simples. Implementá-la, porém, é extraordinariamente difícil, porque obrigaria a arrancar pela raiz a teia de interesses instalados que sequestrou o sistema universitário, protege a mediocridade e transforma demasiados concursos públicos em instrumentos de distribuição de carreiras, poder e privilégios. Passa por combater a endogamia académica e tornar muito mais difícil a viciação dos concursos, seja exigindo uma qualificação científica mínima para o acesso às categorias de professor associado e catedrático, como há muitos anos sucede em Itália, seja permitindo que apenas cheguem à fase final dos concursos  somente os candidatos que tenham sido previamente seleccionados por especialistas internacionais de reconhecido nível mundial, como acontece nas universidades da Suécia. 

PS - A propósito da supracitada proibição do uso de métricas na avaliação das unidades, recordo a pertinência do artigo subscrito por três professores catedráticos, incluindo um antigo reitor, em defesa da sua utilização, que divulguei no passado dia 10 de Agosto sob o título: As métricas não substituem a avaliação científica, mas tornam a mediocridade muito mais difícil de esconder. 

País

Bolsas ERC por milhão de habitantes

Suíça

3,997

Dinamarca

3,154

Finlândia

2,135

Suécia

2,056

Áustria

1,976

Países Baixos

1,789

Bélgica

1,783

Luxemburgo

1,455

Chipre

1,447

Noruega

1,238

Israel

1,140

Alemanha

1,064

Irlanda

0,933

Reino Unido

0,672

Chéquia

0,570

França

0,569

Eslovénia

0,473

Espanha

0,397

Itália

0,373

Lituânia

0,357

Polónia

0,159

Roménia

0,106

Grécia

0,101

Portugal

0,096