quinta-feira, 27 de agosto de 2026

A New Social Contract Between Science and Humanity Against Disinformation and Denial

On August 26, Nature argued that "South Africa’s proposed registration law for scientists could become “a template for the world”https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02568-4 The proposal deserves international attention because it confronts a question that every scientifically advanced society will eventually face: how can scientific power be made answerable without placing scientific inquiry under political permission?

Science has become too powerful to remain institutionally unaccountable. Scientific advice now shapes environmental permits, public-health decisions, agricultural systems, artificial intelligence and technologies capable of affecting entire populations and ecosystems. Yet most countries still rely on a fragmented mixture of qualifications, professional reputation, employer oversight and peer review, none of which necessarily prevents an incompetent or dishonest scientist from providing consequential advice. As an old engineer, I know that professional registration can protect the public by linking safety-critical responsibilities to demonstrated competence, ethical duties and enforceable accountability.

This regulatory vacuum has become more dangerous with the rise of organised movements hostile to scientific knowledge. Flat-earth beliefs may appear merely absurd, but vaccine denial, climate-change denial and other forms of manufactured doubt can cost lives, delay essential policies and erode the public’s capacity to distinguish evidence from propaganda. The danger becomes particularly acute when such movements recruit people with scientific credentials, because professional authority can make misinformation resemble legitimate scientific disagreement. No democratic society should criminalise ignorance, scepticism or dissent. It may, however, legitimately demand accountability when qualified professionals knowingly or recklessly misrepresent established evidence while performing activities with serious consequences for public health, safety or the environment. The ambition behind South Africa’s proposal is therefore not an attack on science. Properly designed, it could fill a regulatory vacuum that most countries have not yet acknowledged

But a global template must draw its boundaries with exceptional care. South Africa’s proposed Bill defines scientific practice broadly enough to include unpaid advice, while failing expressly to protect research, publication, peer review and public commentary. Unregistered practice could carry imprisonment of up to twelve months, and practising scientists are not guaranteed a majority on the ministerially appointed regulatory board. These provisions risk transforming accountability for harmful conduct into political control over who may speak with scientific authority. If copied elsewhere, such a model could give governments a ready-made legal instrument for disciplining inconvenient expertise while offering the public only the illusion that registration guarantees sound judgement.

The soundest professional regimes attach registration to defined, consequential responsibilities rather than to an entire intellectual identity: in engineering, for example, responsibility for certain safety-critical designs is tied to demonstrated professional competence; in medicine, prescribing medicines is a legally restricted act. Any regime worth exporting should follow the same principle and regulate risk rather than scientific identity. Compulsory registration should apply only to precisely defined activities whose negligent performance can directly endanger people or ecosystems, for example, certifying laboratory results, signing legally consequential environmental assessments or assuming responsibility for other safety-critical scientific services. Research, publication, peer review, public-interest communication, citizen science, whistle-blowing and unpaid community advice should be explicitly protected. 

The regulator should have an independently nominated scientific majority, transparent appointments and decisions, declared conflicts of interest and access to external judicial review. Sanctions should be proportional, correction and retraining for minor failures, suspension or fines for serious misconduct, and imprisonment only for intentional fraud, deliberate endangerment or persistent violation of a lawful order. Even reserved activities should be periodically reassessed against evidence of actual harm, preventing public protection from degenerating into professional closure. These safeguards would not make the law weaker. They would make it much tougher where danger is real and inapplicable where freedom is essential.

PS - This is where the argument of the manifesto, Civilizational Futures: Five Normative Imperatives for a Science-Based Civilization, meets a live legislative test. Know requires institutions capable of distinguishing reliable knowledge from incompetence and fraud, while preserving dissent and the freedom to challenge power. Care requires that scientific authority affecting people, other species and ecosystems carry enforceable responsibilities. Build requires institutions designed not only for the governments that create them, but also against future governments tempted to misuse them. A mature science-based civilization refuses to let disinformation and denial hide behind the language of dissent. When anufactured for profit or power, they become a business model whose product is preventable death. The answer is not to constrain inquiry, but to hold fully accountable anyone who wields, exploits or counterfeits scientific authority, while keeping humanity’s pursuit of truth fearless and free.

quarta-feira, 26 de agosto de 2026

As manobras agostinhas do Governo sobre um escândalo de 1000 milhões de euros

Na sequência de um artigo do Público, que critiquei de forma pouco suave no meu blogue e que me levou a dirigir ao provedor do jornal a mensagem reproduzida no final deste texto, partilho abaixo uma intervenção particularmente esclarecedora que recebi do colega Daniel Ferreira Polónia, da Universidade de Aveiro, sempre atento àquilo que vai surgindo no Diário da República, mesmo durante o sonolento mês de Agosto, quando o país está de férias e o escrutínio público também parece ir a banhos.

Se o objectivo do Governo, ao reservar Agosto para publicar semelhantes pérolas jurídicas, era fazer passar discretamente um escândalo de mil milhões de euros, não precisava de ter recorrido a tais manobras agostinhas. A lamentável e muito distraída imprensa nacional já se encarregou de garantir o silêncio, aparentemente muito mais interessada no tamanho do tanque do ministro da Administração Interna do que no destino de mil milhões de euros. Pelos critérios mediáticos nacionais, o tanque é um grande escândalo; mil milhões de euros são apenas um pequeno pormenor de Agosto.
E como é possível que o CRUP assista, cobarde, mudo e quedo, ao desaparecimento dos tais mil milhões de euros que deveriam ter sido utilizados para financiar as unidades do sistema científico nacional, cuja avaliação recordo critiquei no final do texto aqui
Cumprimentos
Pacheco Torgal


_______________________________________________________
De: Daniel Polónia
Enviado: 21 de agosto de 2026 20:16
Para: F. Pacheco Torgal 
Assunto: Re: Queixa ao Provedor do Jornal Público sobre uma noticia acerca de uma farsa que se repete todos os anos
 
Saiu no Diário da República de 21 de Agosto. Vale a pena dois minutos:
https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/detalhe/decreto-lei/170-2026-1160679204
(Altera o Código Fiscal do Investimento, prorrogando o regime do SIFIDE II até 2026 e revogando a possibilidade de aplicação indireta do SIFIDE II através de fundos de investimento)

Em português corrente. O SIFIDE permite às empresas abater ao IRC o que gastam em investigação. Desde 2014, e sobretudo depois de o Orçamento para 2020 lhe fixar as condições, bastava meter o dinheiro num fundo, com a promessa de que o fundo depois investiria em investigação a sério. O desconto no imposto foi imediato. A investigação, em boa parte, nunca apareceu. Estão por aplicar mais de mil milhões de euros — e quem o diz é o preâmbulo do decreto, não a oposição. O mesmo preâmbulo admite, preto no branco, que a via indirecta «traduziu-se num desincentivo ao investimento direto em I&D». Está lá escrito.

O desconto já foi dado. Havia devolução para quem não aplicasse o dinheiro a tempo, e o prazo estava a chegar — o decreto di-lo, age «em face da proximidade do prazo». Solução: desfaz o aperto de 2023, repõe cinco anos em vez de três, repõe o mínimo de 80% para as contribuições de 2021 a 2023, e alarga o que conta como investigação. Passa a servir a compra de equipamento e software do catálogo do Portugal 2030, até 20% de cada fundo e 20 milhões por empresa participada, com efeitos retroactivos a 1 de Janeiro.

O contabilista assina que a despesa existe, está regular e foi paga (artigo 40.º, n.º 14). E o número seguinte diz-lhe expressamente que não responde por saber se aquilo é investigação ou não: essa é competência «exclusiva» da Agência para a Investigação e Inovação. Não é um buraco na lei — é uma escolha da lei. Com que meios e com que método valida uma agência mais de mil milhões de euros?

E nós? A 31 de Julho, treze politécnicos passaram a Universidades Politécnicas — foi essa a notícia do sector no mesmo Verão em que o Estado admitiu ter isto tudo por aplicar. Do CRUP e do CCISP não conheço uma linha sobre este dinheiro; se disseram e me escapou, corrijam-me que eu divulgo.

Agora deixem-me explicar-vos porque é que isto me irrita a título pessoal:
Eu não leio isto no jornal.
Vivo nisto.

Subfinanciamento crónico, ausência de recursos, gente altamente qualificada em sub-emprego permanente, a produzir ciência indexada com meios que envergonhariam uma escola secundária. E um benefício que se desconta no imposto só chega a quem já paga muito imposto: quem precisa não tem lucro onde descontar.

Declaração de interesses: trabalhei na Agência Nacional de Inovação, hoje Agência para a Investigação e Inovação — a entidade a quem este decreto entrega, em exclusivo, esta validação. Tudo o que afirmo é público e verificável nas fontes.

Daniel Polónia
A título estritamente individual
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8194-4713

Fontes:
— Decreto-Lei n.º 170/2026, de 21 de Agosto: https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/detalhe/decreto-lei/170-2026-1160679204
— Relatório de avaliação da despesa fiscal, U-Tax: https://info.portaldasfinancas.gov.pt/pt/dgci/divulgacao/Area_Beneficios_Fiscais/Assessment_Report_Tax_Expenditure_Portugal/Paginas/default.aspx



On Sun, 2 Aug 2026 at 12:54, F. Pacheco Torgal wrote:
Exmo Sr. Provedor do jornal Público,
C/C a outros jornalistas do Público e de outros jornais 

Como assinante do jornal Público, custa-me pagar para ler notícias cuja linguagem as fazem parecer saídas de um gabinete ministerial. Foi precisamente esse problema que hoje comentei no meu blogue: https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2026/08/uma-farsa-que-se-repete-todos-os-anos.html 

Da imprensa espera-se escrutínio das narrativas governamentais e independência perante o poder. Da imprensa que pago espero um rigor ainda maior. Quando um jornal se limita a reproduzir indicadores oficiais sem os submeter a análise crítica, torna-se legítimo perguntar se estamos a pagar por informação ou por propaganda revestida de respeitabilidade jornalística.
Acresce o texto demolidor que reproduzo abaixo, a propósito do meu post, que há pouco recebi de um colega professor da Universidade de Aveiro. Por razões de reserva, não divulgo desde já a sua identidade, mas poderei facultar o respetivo contacto, caso me seja solicitado e mediante a sua autorização.
Cumprimentos
Pacheco Torgal

domingo, 23 de agosto de 2026

The Failure of Autonomous AI Scientists and the Nobel Laureate Who Wants a Different AI

In a recent Princeton-led study, Kirgis et al. gave frontier AI agents the central research questions of two unpublished NeurIPS 2026 papers, along with six days and thousands of dollars’ worth of computing resources. The agents completed all the required coding and experimental engineering without human assistance, yet made no substantial progress on the underlying research problems. When the authors of the original studies evaluated the resulting manuscripts, they awarded them just 2/6 and 1/6 unequivocal rejectionshttps://arxiv.org/abs/2607.27191

Their failure was not primarily technical. The agents could write code, run experiments and assemble superficially credible manuscripts; what they lacked was scientific judgement. They repeatedly misjudged the standard required for publishable research, responded unimaginatively to weaknesses in their experimental designs, failed to reconsider or abandon unproductive directions, managed resources poorly and gradually lost sight of their original instructions. In other words, they could operate the machinery of research but could not reliably determine which questions were worth pursuing, which evidence mattered or which conclusions were scientifically justified.

A complementary study suggests that these limitations extend far beyond two failed papers. The authors analysed more than 25,000 agent runs across eight scientific domains, finding that available evidence was ignored in 68% of reasoning traces and that refutation prompted agents to revise their beliefs in only 26%. These patterns persisted even when agents were shown nearly complete examples of successful reasoning. Curiously, Kirgis et al. cite neither this study, which appeared more than three months earlier and offers a compelling explanation for many of their findings, nor an already available study by Xie et al., previously discussed on this blog, in a post titled "The 52.7% Problem: Why the AI Scientist Still Cannot Be Trusted with Evidence", which similarly exposed serious limitations in the ability of AI agents to perform rigorous scientific evidence synthesis reliably and independently. Their failure to engage with either study constitutes a pair of conspicuous and rather puzzling omissions.

Taken together, these findings cast serious doubt on predictions that AI will soon automate science and unleash explosive recursive self-improvement. They do not by themselves settle what we should build instead, but they sharpen the case for a different direction. As I argue in the post Civilizational Futures: Five Normative Imperatives for a Science-Based Civilization, AI should serve as intellectual scaffolding, it should enable humanity to build higher than it could alone while ultimately leaving behind stronger, more independent minds rather than deeper technological dependence. Writing in Nature three days after this post was first published, Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu makes a parallel case, urging us to abandon the obsession with artificial general intelligence and instead build pro-worker” AI that amplifies human expertise rather than eliminating the people who possess it. In science, this means using AI to expand researchers’ capacity to formulate hypotheses, interrogate evidence and challenge assumptions not pursuing the premature fantasy of autonomous machine scientists. Until agents can reason seriously about evidence, refutation and uncertainty, AI will remain far better at convincingly imitating the visible production of research than at genuinely reproducing the intellectual process through which reliable knowledge is created.