A Scopus search shows that before the war, Russia produced 11,300 papers per month. When the war began, that number fell to 9,700 papers per month. In 2023, it declined further to 9,300, and by 2024, the scientific production had dropped to just 5,300 papers per month.
When I requested ChatGPT to simulate monthly Russian scientific production for 2025, the Generative AI predicted that "Russia's scientific production in 2025 would be approximately 3,710 papers per month." Surprisingly, this projection falls below Portugal's scientific output of 4,400 publications per month.
A subsequent request to ChatGPT for another simulation of Russian scientific production indicated that it could decline by up to 90%, even under the most optimistic scenario of moderate decline:
Scenario 1: Moderate Decline
Scenario 2: Continuing Decline at Accelerated Rate
If the decline continues at a slower but still significant rate (e.g.,
another 2,000 papers per month). Projected production rate for 2026: 3300−2000=13003300−2000=1300 papers per
month.
Scenario 2: Continuing Decline at Accelerated Rate
If the decline continues at a similar rate to 2025, the production could
drop further by 4,000 papers per month. Projected production rate for 2026: 1300−4000=01300−4000=0 papers per month
(practically halting scientific production).
In this context, it is important to underscore that a recent Scopus search for AI-related publications using the keywords "Artificial Intelligence" OR "Machine Learning" OR "Deep Learning" reveals that the scientific production of Russia is now lower than that of Portugal. https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2024/05/analise-scopus-desempenho-das-ies.html
When comparing the performance of the two countries in terms of publications per million inhabitants, Portugal's superiority is strikingly clear. Before the war, Portugal's ratio was 500% higher than Russia's. By 2024, this ratio had increased to over 1000%, and it is projected to exceed 1600% in 2025. Notably, in the field of Artificial Intelligence, Portugal's publication ratio is already 1600% higher than Russia's.
PS - In 2022, eight months after Russia invaded Ukraine, I predicted that Putin would lead Russia into extreme poverty, reminiscent of an era when Russian teachers were paid in bottles of vodka as their monthly salary. Surprisingly, that moment is arriving quicker than I anticipated. https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2022/10/putin-and-irony-will-turn-russia-into.html
