Chinese researchers have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) can accurately predict critical tipping points in complex systems, such as financial markets (e.g., the 2007-09 crisis), abrupt changes in ecosystems, floods, power outages, and many others. This breakthrough is detailed in a recent study published in Physical Review X and highlighted in the latest issue of The Economist.
In their study, the researchers utilized over two decades of satellite data on tree cover and precipitation in Central Africa to predict transitions from tropical forests to savannas. The AI algorithm identified that even a small decrease in annual precipitation could trigger a significant drop in tree cover, indicating a critical tipping point. This represents a significant advancement over previous studies, showcasing the potential of AI to predict critical events across various domains:
"The team then asked the algorithm to identify the conditions that drove the shift to savannah—or, in other words, to predict an oncoming phase transition. The answer was, as expected, down to annual rainfall. But the ai was able to go further. When annual rainfall dropped from 1,800mm to 1,630mm, the results showed that average tree cover dropped by only about 5%. But if the annual precipitation decreased from 1,630mm to about 1,620mm, the algorithm identified that average tree cover suddenly fell by more than 30% further. This would be a textbook critical transition. And by predicting it from the raw data, the researchers say they have broken new ground in this field. Previous work, whether with or without the assistance of ai, could not connect the dots so well. https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/07/17/ai-can-predict-tipping-points-before-they-happen
PS - In the same issue of The Economist, you'll find another compelling article titled "China as the West's Corporate R&D Lab: Can It Remain So?" To fully grasp the insights offered in this new piece, it's essential to consider the context provided by an earlier article from The Economist’s second week of June, which I previously analyzed in my post, "Tech Titans Clash: America vs. China in the Race for Innovation Supremacy" https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2024/06/tech-titans-clash-america-vs-china-in.html
