A recent article in The Economist (linked above) highlights a notable shift in the consumption patterns of the ultra-rich. Traditional luxury assets—such as sports cars, private jets, boats, and sprawling mansions—are losing their appeal as symbols of status because their ubiquity and replicability have diluted their exclusivity. In response, the global elite are increasingly allocating wealth toward highly curated, experiential offerings that are inherently limited and often non-transferable. These include access to elite events, bespoke travel and hospitality, and other immersive experiences that combine social prestige with scarcity. Recognizing the potential economic implications of this shift, I engaged GPT-5 to conduct a foresight analysis identifying the countries most likely to benefit from evolving ultra-wealthy consumption patterns. The excerpt below presents the opening segment of GPT’s analysis, covering the first three countries (Italy, France and Portugal) in the Top 10 ranking, as elaborated in the full response.
Equally noteworthy in the realm of the ultra-rich is the importance of acknowledging other forms of immersive experiences that carry substantial social prestige—among them, the act of paying taxes. In this context, it is particularly commendable to highlight the work of economist Gabriel Zucman, whose most recent book, Billionaires Don’t Pay Income Tax—and We’re Going to Stop It, mercilessly exposes the parasitic behavior of the ultra-rich, who rig the system to dodge their fair share while the rest of society bears the burden. He lays bare the staggering scale of tax avoidance, dissects the loopholes they exploit, and proposes a simple but radical fix—a modest annual wealth tax to claw back stolen fairness. More than a policy prescription, Zucman’s work is a searing indictment of economic privilege, framing tax compliance as a non-negotiable civic duty and a measure of basic human decency in a society hollowed out by the greed of its wealthiest members, whose effective tax rate hovers around 0.3% of their wealth. https://www.amazon.fr/milliardaires-paient-dimp%C3%B4t-revenu-allons-ebook/dp/B0FT3526SD
GPT-5 foresight analysis on Italy, France, and Portugal, the top three countries most likely to benefit from recent shifts in the consumption patterns of the ultra-rich:
Italy — The Rebirth of Sensual Culture
Italy stands at the epicenter of this
experiential turn. Its fusion of high culture, gastronomy, aesthetic
refinement, and emotional heritage offers what no synthetic luxury
brand can replicate: continuity of meaning. UHNW individuals are
increasingly channeling wealth into private villas, vineyard estates,
and immersive culinary sanctuaries, where the allure lies in authorship—crafting
and living one’s own Italian narrative. Regions such as Tuscany, the
Amalfi Coast, and Lake Como exemplify this evolution: the grandeur of
marble palazzi gives way to the intimacy of experiential estates that
promise restoration, slowness, and discretion. Parallel markets are flourishing
in art-restoration tourism, bespoke culinary academies, and heritage
craftsmanship residencies, signaling a shift from consumption to cultural
stewardship. Italy thus transforms luxury into a lived continuity
between art, land, and identity.
France — Luxury as a Cultural Performance
France retains its position as the global
benchmark for luxury as performance—an aesthetic, ritualized experience
rather than a product. Nowhere else fuses Michelin gastronomy, couture
ateliers, and curated art events (such as Paris+ par Art Basel)
into a seamless continuum of taste and distinction. The Paris–Provence–Bordeaux axis represents
a triad of experiential sophistication: Paris as the stage of symbolic capital,
Provence as the sanctuary of sensorial retreat, and Bordeaux as the realm of
oenological mastery. Meanwhile, the French Alps (Courchevel,
Chamonix, Megève) are rebranding from ostentation to stealth wealth:
alpine privacy, unbranded opulence, and the social discretion now prized by the
global elite. France’s fastest-growing segment is not retail but invitation-only
cultural immersion—events, ateliers, and residencies that render luxury
invisible yet inimitable.
Portugal — The Discreet Vanguard of Sustainable
Luxury
Portugal emerges as a quiet
powerhouse in this experiential economy, offering a blend of climate
stability, safety, affordability, and authenticity. For the ultra-wealthy
seeking post-bling serenity, Portugal provides what global
metropolises cannot: intimacy without isolation. The Lisbon–Comporta–Alentejo corridor
is becoming a laboratory for experiential minimalism—a style that
privileges substance over spectacle. Foreign capital increasingly flows
into sustainable estates, creative residencies, and wellness retreats,
where the emphasis is on regeneration, not display. The country’s
discreet identity—cultured yet unpretentious—positions it as the ideal
destination for the new aristocracy of restraint. Its emerging niche is
clear: “quiet luxury” fused with environmental consciousness, a
lifestyle defined not by accumulation but by alignment with place and purpose.
