Portugal's Scientific Publications Expected to Exceed Russia's by 1600% in 2025

A Scopus search shows that before the war, Russia produced 11,300 papers per month. When the war began, that number fell to 9,700 papers per month. In 2023, it declined further to 9,300, and by 2024, the scientific production had dropped to just 5,300 papers per month.  

When I requested ChatGPT to simulate monthly Russian scientific production for 2025, the Generative AI predicted that "Russia's scientific production in 2025 would be approximately 3,710 papers per month." Surprisingly, this projection falls below Portugal's scientific output of 4,400 publications per month. 

A subsequent request to ChatGPT for another simulation of Russian scientific production indicated that it could decline by up to 90%, even under the most optimistic scenario of moderate decline:

Scenario 1: Moderate Decline

If the decline continues at a slower but still significant rate (e.g., another 2,000 papers per month). Projected production rate for 2026: 3300−2000=13003300−2000=1300 papers per month.

 
Scenario 2: Continuing Decline at Accelerated Rate

If the decline continues at a similar rate to 2025, the production could drop further by 4,000 papers per month. Projected production rate for 2026: 1300−4000=01300−4000=0 papers per month (practically halting scientific production).

In this context, it is important to underscore that a recent Scopus search for AI-related publications using the keywords "Artificial Intelligence" OR "Machine Learning" OR "Deep Learning" reveals that the scientific production of Russia is now lower than that of Portugal. https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2024/05/analise-scopus-desempenho-das-ies.html

When comparing the performance of the two countries in terms of publications per million inhabitants, Portugal's superiority is strikingly clear. Before the war, Portugal's ratio was 500% higher than Russia's. By 2024, this ratio had increased to over 1000%, and it is projected to exceed 1600% in 2025. Notably, in the field of Artificial Intelligence, Portugal's publication ratio is already 1600% higher than Russia's.

PS - In 2022, eight months after Russia invaded Ukraine, I predicted that Putin would lead Russia into extreme poverty, reminiscent of an era when Russian teachers were paid in bottles of vodka as their monthly salary. Surprisingly, that moment is arriving quicker than I anticipated. https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2022/10/putin-and-irony-will-turn-russia-into.html

The sad story of a super-scientist who dreamed of becoming European champion

https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-moral-imperative-of-scientific.html

In a previous post titled "The Moral Imperative of Scientific Rebellion for Innovation Resurgence and Safeguard Our Planet", I listed seven pieces of advice to encourage more rebellious scientists. Recently, a study by researchers from Switzerland and China revealed that scientists with very high publication rates tend to have less capacity for leading disruptive discoveries. This suggests the need to add a new piece of advice to the aforementioned list:, "Avoid hiring scientists who pump out papers as if on an assembly line"

The results of this study do not surprise me. For several years, I have observed that the most highly regarded scientists, both internationally and in my own country, are not those with the most publications. This was evident in a post I wrote that garnered thousands of views. https://pacheco-torgal.blogspot.com/2021/05/ranking-de-investigadores.html

Regarding super-scientists, it is worth noting that a Norwegian university recently launched an investigation into the scientist with the highest number of publications in the country. This scientist, who has been publishing several articles per week and once expressed a dream of becoming the most published scientist in Europe, is now under scrutiny. https://www.universitetsavisa.no/filippo-berto-forskningsetikk-forskningsjuks/norges-mestpubliserende-forsker-granskes-for-alvorlige-brudd-pa-etiske-normer/403870

However, it is crucial to recognize that the blame for his unrealistic dream does not lie solely with him. It also falls on the academic community, which has allowed this problematic trend to rise unchecked, harming scientific integrity. Reflecting on this, I recall a post I wrote a few years ago titled, How many papers can a super-scientist author in a single week ?

"The repercussions of the aforementioned Reapolitik publishing strategy are manifold. Firstly, if Full Professors and Lab Directors can exploit this approach, it sets a precedent for junior researchers to emulate, harboring dreams of accumulating numerous publications themselves one day. Secondly, if this becomes the norm in Western countries, third-world nations may be inclined to replicate these "successful" practices, cultivating their own super-scientists. Consequently, if an African super-scientist were to emerge with 10,000 or 20,000 publications at the summit of the publishing rankings, there would be little ground for criticism. Moreover, in an era where Science faces challenges from alternative facts and fake news, this "grossly unethical" authorship behavior undermines scientific authority, inadvertently aiding those who oppose Science"

A triste história de um super-cientista que tinha o sonho se tornar campeão europeu

 

https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2024/02/o-dever-moral-de-fomentar-rebeldia.html

Num post anterior de titulo "O imperativo e urgente dever moral de fomentar a rebeldia científica" foi apresentada uma lista (gerada pelo ChatGPT) contendo sete conselhos com vista a aumentar o número de cientistas rebeldes, tendo porém em conta que muito recentemente foi publicado um estudo, de investigadores da Suiça e da China, que mostra que os investigadores com padrões de publicação muito elevados, apresentam menor capacidade para protagonizar descobertas mais disruptivas, então faz sentido incluir na lista um novo conselho, "Avoid hiring scientists who pump out papers as if on an assembly line"

Os resultados do tal estudo não me surpreendem minimamente, pois já há vários anos, que pude constatar que os cientistas mais credenciados, tanto no estrangeiro, como em Portugal, não são aqueles que possuem um maior número de publicações, vide post que teve 2000 visualizações https://pacheco-torgal.blogspot.com/2021/05/ranking-de-investigadores.html 

Sobre os cientistas com capacidades de publicação sobre-humanas, é importante divulgar que recentemente uma universidade Norueguesa, decidiu abrir uma investigação, ao cientista com mais publicações daquele país, que tinha a capacidade de publicar vários artigos por semana e que há poucos anos disse ter o sonho de se tornar o cientista com mais publicações em toda a Europa https://www.universitetsavisa.no/filippo-berto-forskningsetikk-forskningsjuks/norges-mestpubliserende-forsker-granskes-for-alvorlige-brudd-pa-etiske-normer/403870

É porém justo que se diga, que a culpa dele ter um sonho demente, não lhe pode ser imputada somente a ele, mas também a todos aqueles académicos que assistiram impávidos e serenos, à ascenção deste fenómeno espúrio, que muito prejudica a ciência. Sobre o mesmo recordo aquilo que escrevi há alguns anos atrás, num post em cujo título questionei, quantos artigos é que um super-cientista consegue produzir numa semana ? 

"The repercussions of the aforementioned Reapolitik publishing strategy are manifold. Firstly, if Full Professors and Lab Directors can exploit this approach, it sets a precedent for junior researchers to emulate, harboring dreams of accumulating numerous publications themselves one day. Secondly, if this becomes the norm in Western countries, third-world nations may be inclined to replicate these "successful" practices, cultivating their own super-scientists. Consequently, if an African super-scientist were to emerge with 10,000 or 20,000 publications at the summit of the publishing rankings, there would be little ground for criticism. Moreover, in an era where Science faces challenges from alternative facts and fake news, this "grossly unethical" authorship behavior undermines scientific authority, inadvertently aiding those who oppose Science"