The Economist - Predicting Environmental Collapses Before They Happen

Chinese researchers have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) can accurately predict critical tipping points in complex systems, such as financial markets (e.g., the 2007-09 crisis), abrupt changes in ecosystems, floods, power outages, and many others. This breakthrough is detailed in a recent study published in Physical Review X and highlighted in the latest issue of The Economist.

In their study, the researchers utilized over two decades of satellite data on tree cover and precipitation in Central Africa to predict transitions from tropical forests to savannas. The AI algorithm identified that even a small decrease in annual precipitation could trigger a significant drop in tree cover, indicating a critical tipping point. This represents a significant advancement over previous studies, showcasing the potential of AI to predict critical events across various domains:

"The team then asked the algorithm to identify the conditions that drove the shift to savannah—or, in other words, to predict an oncoming phase transition. The answer was, as expected, down to annual rainfall. But the ai was able to go further. When annual rainfall dropped from 1,800mm to 1,630mm, the results showed that average tree cover dropped by only about 5%. But if the annual precipitation decreased from 1,630mm to about 1,620mm, the algorithm identified that average tree cover suddenly fell by more than 30% further. This would be a textbook critical transition. And by predicting it from the raw data, the researchers say they have broken new ground in this field. Previous work, whether with or without the assistance of ai, could not connect the dots so well. https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/07/17/ai-can-predict-tipping-points-before-they-happen

PS - In the same issue of The Economist, you'll find another compelling article titled "China as the West's Corporate R&D Lab: Can It Remain So?" To fully grasp the insights offered in this new piece, it's essential to consider the context provided by an earlier article from The Economist’s second week of June, which I previously analyzed in my post, "Tech Titans Clash: America vs. China in the Race for Innovation Supremacy" https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2024/06/tech-titans-clash-america-vs-china-in.html

The Economist – IA revoluciona a previsão de crises financeiras e outros eventos críticos em sistemas complexos

 

Investigadores chineses demonstraram que a inteligência artificial (IA) consegue prever com elevado rigor pontos de inflexão críticos (tipping point) em sistemas complexos, como os mercados financeiros (crise de 2007-09), as alterações abruptas nos ecossistemas, em inundações, ou em quebras de fornecimento de energia elétrica e muitos outros.  Vide estudo recente que foi publicado na Physical Review X, e que foi divulgado no último número da revista The Economist. 

Os referidos investigadores utilizaram mais de duas décadas de dados de satélite sobre cobertura arbórea e de precipitação naÁfrica Central, para tentar prever mudanças de florestas tropicais para savanas. O algoritmo de IA constatou que uma pequena diminuição na precipitação anual podia causar uma queda abrupta na cobertura arbórea, um ponto de inflexão crítico, o que representa um claro avanço que supera as limitações de estudos anteriores e destaca o potencial da IA para prever eventos críticos em diversas áreas:

"The team then asked the algorithm to identify the conditions that drove the shift to savannah—or, in other words, to predict an oncoming phase transition. The answer was, as expected, down to annual rainfall. But the ai was able to go further. When annual rainfall dropped from 1,800mm to 1,630mm, the results showed that average tree cover dropped by only about 5%. But if the annual precipitation decreased from 1,630mm to about 1,620mm, the algorithm identified that average tree cover suddenly fell by more than 30% further. This would be a textbook critical transition. And by predicting it from the raw data, the researchers say they have broken new ground in this field. Previous work, whether with or without the assistance of ai, could not connect the dots so well. https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/07/17/ai-can-predict-tipping-points-before-they-happen

PS - Na mesma revista há um outro artigo interessante de título "China is the West´s corporate R&D lab. Can it remain so ?", que deve ser lido tendo em conta aquilo que foi publicado na mesma revista, na segunda semana de Junho (sobre a ascenção da ciência chinesa) e que eu na altura comentei no post "Os políticos Portugueses são distraídos ou padecem de tacanhez mental profunda?" e também no post "Da Profunda Ignorância e Incompetência Portuguesa à Excelência Científica Chinesa"

From the USA to Hong Kong: Decoding the Unexpected and Mysterious Interest Shift

  

Since 2019, the USA has consistently been the leading country in terms of absolute visits to this blog as well as two others that I own. This predominance is largely attributable to its substantial population size. However, when adjusting for the number of visitors per million inhabitants, Finland and the Netherlands have traditionally occupied the top spots.

However, less than six months ago, an unexpected development occurred. Hong Kong surpassed the USA in terms of absolute visits, becoming the new leader not only in total numbers but also in visitors per million inhabitants. Its visitor ratio is now nearly 300% higher than that of Finland, which ranks second, and almost 700% higher than that of the Netherlands, which is in third place. 

One hypothesis for this surge in interest was a recent post about an upcoming book I edited with a professor from the University of Hong Kong, who has a high Scopus h-index. However, this post is recent and does not correlate with the start of the increased interest several months ago. https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2024/07/book-advances-in-bio-based-materials.html

Another possibility was that recent posts might have been of particular interest to visitors from Hong Kong. I analyzed the 10 most viewed posts from recent months (below), but this analysis did not reveal any specific trends that would explain the surge. Thus, the question remains: what is driving Hong Kong's mysterious interest in the latest posts on this blog?

1st place - The new study by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL) will empower edtech companies to attack universities worldwide

2nd place - Rectifying Euronews' oversight: The imperative of carbon sequestration in building sustainability

3rd place -  Adapt or become Irrelevant: Scientists urged to become Influencers as AI alters the fabric of scientific communication 

4th place  - Schrödinger, Life, AI, and God-Like Powers that Reign as Humanity's Ultimate Desire 

5th place - The Economist - AI Co-authorship Estimated at Over One Million Scientific Publications 

6th place - 10 Essential Criteria for Crafting a Disruptive Researcher Hiring Policy 

7th place - Portugal's Scientific Publications Expected to Exceed Russia's by 1600% in 2025  

8th place - Gen AI's Dark Side: Researchers Expose Rising Tide of Deceptive Content and Fraud 

9th place - Compulsory psychological assessments for candidates applying for positions as university professors and researchers  

10th place - GPT Awakens: Unveiling the Dawn of Synthetic Consciousness 

Hong Kong

Estados Unidos

Países Baixos

Finlândia

França

Alemanha

Áustria