domingo, 30 de agosto de 2026

As críticas de um catedrático e o roubo do futuro dos filhos das famílias mais pobres

Num excelente e contundente artigo hoje no jornal Público, o catedrático Luís M. Rocha parte de um dado que deveria envergonhar qualquer Governo, os estudantes provenientes das famílias mais pobres representam apenas 3% dos novos colocados no ensino superior, uma obscenidade social politicamente imperdoável, moralmente repugnante e civilizacionalmente indefensável (palavras minhas), para arrasar um sistema educativo que funciona, na prática, como "um mecanismo de autosselecção e preservação das classes dominantes, que têm melhores recursos para preparar os seus filhos". 

A formulação é rigorosa, mas poderia ser ainda mais acusatória. O sistema actual constitui um roubo descarado do futuro dos jovens das famílias mais pobres, praticado com a cumplicidade política de sucessivos governos. E foi precisamente esta vergonhosa fraude social que denunciei no texto “Aquecimento global provoca explosão de notas de 19 e 20 valores nos colégios privados em Portugal”. Um país que permite que a origem económica determine o acesso às melhores oportunidades não possui verdadeiramente um sistema meritocrático; possui apenas uma aristocracia hereditária disfarçada por médias viciadas.

Felizmente, porém que o ilustre catedrático Luís M. Rocha não se ficou "apenas" por esta denúncia. Atacou também o fracasso das universidades de Lisboa e do Porto, relegadas para uma posição humilhante nos escalões internacionais do prestigiado ranking de Shanghai de 2026. Este resultado representa um verdadeiro chumbo nas exigências de excelência com que os responsáveis daquelas duas universidades tanto gostam de encher a boca. Recordo que também escrevi sobre este fracasso, no dia 21 de Agosto, no post de título “Ranking Shanghai de 2026 — As universidades de Lisboa e Porto são as responsáveis por Portugal estar agora abaixo da Argentina”

As duas denúncias expõem as duas faces da mesma fraude. À entrada, o sistema esmaga os jovens pobres para reservar os melhores lugares aos herdeiros das classes dominantes; no topo, transforma a autonomia universitária num escudo destinado a proteger burocracias acomodadas, redes de interesses e estruturas incapazes de competir com a verdadeira excelência internacional. Aos pobres exige-se uma meritocracia implacável e adulterada; às elites académicas perdoam-se décadas de endogamia, mediocridade e fracasso. O resultado não é apenas um sistema injusto, é na verdade uma máquina de reprodução social que confisca o futuro dos mais desfavorecidos, distribui oportunidades segundo o berço e depois protege ferozmente os responsáveis pela irrelevância científica do país. Portugal não tem um elevador social nem um sistema universitário orientado para a excelência, tem uma fortaleza de privilégios, construída para manter os pobres do lado de fora e os medíocres confortavelmente instalados na Academia e protegidos pela impunidade institucional.

sábado, 29 de agosto de 2026

China Is Engineering Academic Fear and Expecting It to Produce Scientific Genius


In my recent post, Can China Engineer Scientific Genius?, I asked whether scientific genius could be deliberately manufactured by a state through massive investment, aggressive recruitment, publication incentives and the systematic reorganization of universities around national technological ambitions. China has now provided an unexpected and disturbing extension to that question. As reported by the Times Higher Education on 27 August, Tongji University, one of the country's most prestigious research institutions and one of the institutions selected at institutional level in the Double First Class initiative, has effectively abolished academic tenure. Under a notice that took effect in late July, pre-tenure academics will be assessed every three years, whereas tenured faculty will undergo an interim review every three years and a comprehensive assessment every six. Failure could result in salary cuts, demotion or dismissal. Simon Marginson, professor at the universities of Oxford and Bristol, has described the decision as "an earthquake in Chinese academia".

Tongji is therefore testing the opposite of academic security, whether scientific greatness can be produced by permanently exposing researchers to the possibility of professional decline. Yet fear is exceptionally effective at generating measurable activity and exceptionally poor at generating intellectual courage. Academics whose salaries, status and employment depend on recurrent assessments will rationally favour abundant publications, fashionable subjects, predictable results and projects capable of producing rapid indicators. They will be less willing to spend a decade pursuing a difficult idea, challenge an influential orthodoxy or undertake research whose importance might not become apparent within the next evaluation cycle. China may obtain more papers from such a system, but more papers are not necessarily more science and they are certainly not more genius.

Yet one of the strongest quasi-experimental studies of scientific incentives points decisively in the opposite direction. Azoulay et al. compared scientists appointed as Howard Hughes Medical Institute investigators who received long-term support, freedom to change direction and explicit tolerance of early failure with similarly accomplished scientists operating under the NIH system of shorter review cycles, predefined deliverables and funding renewal less forgiving of failure. The HHMI investigators produced 55% more papers in the top 5% of the citation distribution and 97% more in the top 1%, while also moving into more novel lines of inquiry. The study demonstrated something directly relevant to Tongji’s experiment, when exceptional researchers are given time, autonomy and permission to fail, they do not become complacent, they become substantially more likely to produce exceptional science. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1756-2171.2011.00140.x

More worryingly, Tongji’s decision also directly undermines the vision I recently proposed in Civilizational Futures: Five Normative Imperatives for a Science-Based Civilization. Under the imperative to Liberate, I argued that humanity must stop wasting intelligence by creating environments in which caution is safer than intellectual risk. Under Know, I defended the systematic conquest of ignorance through institutions that preserve contradiction, uncertainty and dissent rather than suppressing them. And under Build, I argued that universities must be capable of funding research whose conclusions may belong to another generation. Tongji is moving in precisely the opposite direction. An academic who can be demoted, impoverished or dismissed at the next assessment according to criteria that have not even been defined, will be encouraged to protect a career rather than endanger it in pursuit of an uncertain truth. Six-year administrative horizons will displace scientific horizons that may require decades.

A science-based civilization cannot place researchers at the centre of humanity’s intellectual aspirations while simultaneously treating them as disposable production units under permanent managerial surveillance. Nor can it claim to admire discovery while rewarding primarily what can be counted before the next review. The most transformative ideas are often initially unfashionable, unproductive and apparently wrong; their survival depends on minds sufficiently secure to resist consensus and institutions sufficiently patient to tolerate failure. Tongji may believe that insecurity will eradicate complacency. In reality, it risks eradicating the independence, courage and long-term imagination from which scientific revolutions are born. Fear can manufacture obedience, frenetic publication and metric-compliant careers; it cannot manufacture genius. A civilization that terrorizes its intellectual explorers will not conquer ignorance; it will merely teach its brightest minds never to venture beyond the safety of the already known, where all scientific revolutions are born.

PS - Defending tenure does not mean defending academic impunity or turning it into lifelong welfare for academic cowards. Tenure exists to protect scholars who take intellectual risks, confront powerful interests, publicly defend inconvenient truths and speak when silence would be professionally safer. Academics who never question authority, defend persecuted colleagues, enter controversial debates or confront institutional wrongdoing do not need tenure, they have voluntarily embraced the obedience it was created to prevent. They demand protection for a freedom they refuse to exercise. Tenure should safeguard courage and intellectual independence not complacency, parasitism or carefully cultivated silence. As I have argued before, the rule should be simple: tenure, use it courageously or risk losing it.

quinta-feira, 27 de agosto de 2026

A New Social Contract Between Science and Humanity Against Disinformation and Denial

On August 26, Nature argued that "South Africa’s proposed registration law for scientists could become “a template for the world”https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02568-4 The proposal deserves international attention because it confronts a question that every scientifically advanced society will eventually face: how can scientific power be made answerable without placing scientific inquiry under political permission?

Science has become too powerful to remain institutionally unaccountable. Scientific advice now shapes environmental permits, public-health decisions, agricultural systems, artificial intelligence and technologies capable of affecting entire populations and ecosystems. Yet most countries still rely on a fragmented mixture of qualifications, professional reputation, employer oversight and peer review, none of which necessarily prevents an incompetent or dishonest scientist from providing consequential advice. As an old engineer, I know that professional registration can protect the public by linking safety-critical responsibilities to demonstrated competence, ethical duties and enforceable accountability.

This regulatory vacuum has become more dangerous with the rise of organised movements hostile to scientific knowledge. Flat-earth beliefs may appear merely absurd, but vaccine denial, climate-change denial and other forms of manufactured doubt can cost lives, delay essential policies and erode the public’s capacity to distinguish evidence from propaganda. The danger becomes particularly acute when such movements recruit people with scientific credentials, because professional authority can make misinformation resemble legitimate scientific disagreement. No democratic society should criminalise ignorance, scepticism or dissent. It may, however, legitimately demand accountability when qualified professionals knowingly or recklessly misrepresent established evidence while performing activities with serious consequences for public health, safety or the environment. The ambition behind South Africa’s proposal is therefore not an attack on science. Properly designed, it could fill a regulatory vacuum that most countries have not yet acknowledged

But a global template must draw its boundaries with exceptional care. South Africa’s proposed Bill defines scientific practice broadly enough to include unpaid advice, while failing expressly to protect research, publication, peer review and public commentary. Unregistered practice could carry imprisonment of up to twelve months, and practising scientists are not guaranteed a majority on the ministerially appointed regulatory board. These provisions risk transforming accountability for harmful conduct into political control over who may speak with scientific authority. If copied elsewhere, such a model could give governments a ready-made legal instrument for disciplining inconvenient expertise while offering the public only the illusion that registration guarantees sound judgement.

The soundest professional regimes attach registration to defined, consequential responsibilities rather than to an entire intellectual identity: in engineering, for example, responsibility for certain safety-critical designs is tied to demonstrated professional competence; in medicine, prescribing medicines is a legally restricted act. Any regime worth exporting should follow the same principle and regulate risk rather than scientific identity. Compulsory registration should apply only to precisely defined activities whose negligent performance can directly endanger people or ecosystems, for example, certifying laboratory results, signing legally consequential environmental assessments or assuming responsibility for other safety-critical scientific services. Research, publication, peer review, public-interest communication, citizen science, whistle-blowing and unpaid community advice should be explicitly protected. 

The regulator should have an independently nominated scientific majority, transparent appointments and decisions, declared conflicts of interest and access to external judicial review. Sanctions should be proportional, correction and retraining for minor failures, suspension or fines for serious misconduct, and imprisonment only for intentional fraud, deliberate endangerment or persistent violation of a lawful order. Even reserved activities should be periodically reassessed against evidence of actual harm, preventing public protection from degenerating into professional closure. These safeguards would not make the law weaker. They would make it much tougher where danger is real and inapplicable where freedom is essential.

PS - This is where the argument of the manifesto, Civilizational Futures: Five Normative Imperatives for a Science-Based Civilization, meets a live legislative test. Know requires institutions capable of distinguishing reliable knowledge from incompetence and fraud, while preserving dissent and the freedom to challenge power. Care requires that scientific authority affecting people, other species and ecosystems carry enforceable responsibilities. Build requires institutions designed not only for the governments that create them, but also against future governments tempted to misuse them. A mature science-based civilization refuses to let disinformation and denial hide behind the language of dissent. When anufactured for profit or power, they become a business model whose product is preventable death. The answer is not to constrain inquiry, but to hold fully accountable anyone who wields, exploits or counterfeits scientific authority, while keeping humanity’s pursuit of truth fearless and free.

quarta-feira, 26 de agosto de 2026

As manobras agostinhas do Governo sobre um escândalo de 1000 milhões de euros

Na sequência de um artigo do Público, que critiquei de forma pouco suave no meu blogue e que me levou a dirigir ao provedor do jornal a mensagem reproduzida no final deste texto, partilho abaixo uma intervenção particularmente esclarecedora que recebi do colega Daniel Ferreira Polónia, da Universidade de Aveiro, sempre atento àquilo que vai surgindo no Diário da República, mesmo durante o sonolento mês de Agosto, quando o país está de férias e o escrutínio público também parece ir a banhos.

Se o objectivo do Governo, ao reservar Agosto para publicar semelhantes pérolas jurídicas, era fazer passar discretamente um escândalo de mil milhões de euros, não precisava de ter recorrido a tais manobras agostinhas. A lamentável e muito distraída imprensa nacional já se encarregou de garantir o silêncio, aparentemente muito mais interessada no tamanho do tanque do ministro da Administração Interna do que no destino de mil milhões de euros. Pelos critérios mediáticos nacionais, o tanque é um grande escândalo; mil milhões de euros são apenas um pequeno pormenor de Agosto.
E como é possível que o CRUP assista, cobarde, mudo e quedo, ao desaparecimento dos tais mil milhões de euros que deveriam ter sido utilizados para financiar as unidades do sistema científico nacional, cuja avaliação recordo critiquei no final do texto aqui
Cumprimentos
Pacheco Torgal


_______________________________________________________
De: Daniel Polónia
Enviado: 21 de agosto de 2026 20:16
Para: F. Pacheco Torgal 
Assunto: Re: Queixa ao Provedor do Jornal Público sobre uma noticia acerca de uma farsa que se repete todos os anos
 
Saiu no Diário da República de 21 de Agosto. Vale a pena dois minutos:
https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/detalhe/decreto-lei/170-2026-1160679204
(Altera o Código Fiscal do Investimento, prorrogando o regime do SIFIDE II até 2026 e revogando a possibilidade de aplicação indireta do SIFIDE II através de fundos de investimento)

Em português corrente. O SIFIDE permite às empresas abater ao IRC o que gastam em investigação. Desde 2014, e sobretudo depois de o Orçamento para 2020 lhe fixar as condições, bastava meter o dinheiro num fundo, com a promessa de que o fundo depois investiria em investigação a sério. O desconto no imposto foi imediato. A investigação, em boa parte, nunca apareceu. Estão por aplicar mais de mil milhões de euros — e quem o diz é o preâmbulo do decreto, não a oposição. O mesmo preâmbulo admite, preto no branco, que a via indirecta «traduziu-se num desincentivo ao investimento direto em I&D». Está lá escrito.

O desconto já foi dado. Havia devolução para quem não aplicasse o dinheiro a tempo, e o prazo estava a chegar — o decreto di-lo, age «em face da proximidade do prazo». Solução: desfaz o aperto de 2023, repõe cinco anos em vez de três, repõe o mínimo de 80% para as contribuições de 2021 a 2023, e alarga o que conta como investigação. Passa a servir a compra de equipamento e software do catálogo do Portugal 2030, até 20% de cada fundo e 20 milhões por empresa participada, com efeitos retroactivos a 1 de Janeiro.

O contabilista assina que a despesa existe, está regular e foi paga (artigo 40.º, n.º 14). E o número seguinte diz-lhe expressamente que não responde por saber se aquilo é investigação ou não: essa é competência «exclusiva» da Agência para a Investigação e Inovação. Não é um buraco na lei — é uma escolha da lei. Com que meios e com que método valida uma agência mais de mil milhões de euros?

E nós? A 31 de Julho, treze politécnicos passaram a Universidades Politécnicas — foi essa a notícia do sector no mesmo Verão em que o Estado admitiu ter isto tudo por aplicar. Do CRUP e do CCISP não conheço uma linha sobre este dinheiro; se disseram e me escapou, corrijam-me que eu divulgo.

Agora deixem-me explicar-vos porque é que isto me irrita a título pessoal:
Eu não leio isto no jornal.
Vivo nisto.

Subfinanciamento crónico, ausência de recursos, gente altamente qualificada em sub-emprego permanente, a produzir ciência indexada com meios que envergonhariam uma escola secundária. E um benefício que se desconta no imposto só chega a quem já paga muito imposto: quem precisa não tem lucro onde descontar.

Declaração de interesses: trabalhei na Agência Nacional de Inovação, hoje Agência para a Investigação e Inovação — a entidade a quem este decreto entrega, em exclusivo, esta validação. Tudo o que afirmo é público e verificável nas fontes.

Daniel Polónia
A título estritamente individual
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8194-4713

Fontes:
— Decreto-Lei n.º 170/2026, de 21 de Agosto: https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/detalhe/decreto-lei/170-2026-1160679204
— Relatório de avaliação da despesa fiscal, U-Tax: https://info.portaldasfinancas.gov.pt/pt/dgci/divulgacao/Area_Beneficios_Fiscais/Assessment_Report_Tax_Expenditure_Portugal/Paginas/default.aspx



On Sun, 2 Aug 2026 at 12:54, F. Pacheco Torgal wrote:
Exmo Sr. Provedor do jornal Público,
C/C a outros jornalistas do Público e de outros jornais 

Como assinante do jornal Público, custa-me pagar para ler notícias cuja linguagem as fazem parecer saídas de um gabinete ministerial. Foi precisamente esse problema que hoje comentei no meu blogue: https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2026/08/uma-farsa-que-se-repete-todos-os-anos.html 

Da imprensa espera-se escrutínio das narrativas governamentais e independência perante o poder. Da imprensa que pago espero um rigor ainda maior. Quando um jornal se limita a reproduzir indicadores oficiais sem os submeter a análise crítica, torna-se legítimo perguntar se estamos a pagar por informação ou por propaganda revestida de respeitabilidade jornalística.
Acresce o texto demolidor que reproduzo abaixo, a propósito do meu post, que há pouco recebi de um colega professor da Universidade de Aveiro. Por razões de reserva, não divulgo desde já a sua identidade, mas poderei facultar o respetivo contacto, caso me seja solicitado e mediante a sua autorização.
Cumprimentos
Pacheco Torgal

domingo, 23 de agosto de 2026

The Failure of Autonomous AI Scientists and the Nobel Laureate Who Wants a Different AI

In a recent Princeton-led study, Kirgis et al. gave frontier AI agents the central research questions of two unpublished NeurIPS 2026 papers, along with six days and thousands of dollars’ worth of computing resources. The agents completed all the required coding and experimental engineering without human assistance, yet made no substantial progress on the underlying research problems. When the authors of the original studies evaluated the resulting manuscripts, they awarded them just 2/6 and 1/6 unequivocal rejectionshttps://arxiv.org/abs/2607.27191

Their failure was not primarily technical. The agents could write code, run experiments and assemble superficially credible manuscripts; what they lacked was scientific judgement. They repeatedly misjudged the standard required for publishable research, responded unimaginatively to weaknesses in their experimental designs, failed to reconsider or abandon unproductive directions, managed resources poorly and gradually lost sight of their original instructions. In other words, they could operate the machinery of research but could not reliably determine which questions were worth pursuing, which evidence mattered or which conclusions were scientifically justified.

A complementary study suggests that these limitations extend far beyond two failed papers. The authors analysed more than 25,000 agent runs across eight scientific domains, finding that available evidence was ignored in 68% of reasoning traces and that refutation prompted agents to revise their beliefs in only 26%. These patterns persisted even when agents were shown nearly complete examples of successful reasoning. Curiously, Kirgis et al. cite neither this study, which appeared more than three months earlier and offers a compelling explanation for many of their findings, nor an already available study by Xie et al., previously discussed on this blog, in a post titled "The 52.7% Problem: Why the AI Scientist Still Cannot Be Trusted with Evidence", which similarly exposed serious limitations in the ability of AI agents to perform rigorous scientific evidence synthesis reliably and independently. Their failure to engage with either study constitutes a pair of conspicuous and rather puzzling omissions.

Taken together, these findings cast serious doubt on predictions that AI will soon automate science and unleash explosive recursive self-improvement. They do not by themselves settle what we should build instead, but they sharpen the case for a different direction. As I argue in the post Civilizational Futures: Five Normative Imperatives for a Science-Based Civilization, AI should serve as intellectual scaffolding, it should enable humanity to build higher than it could alone while ultimately leaving behind stronger, more independent minds rather than deeper technological dependence. Writing in Nature three days after this post was first published, Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu makes a parallel case, urging us to abandon the obsession with artificial general intelligence and instead build pro-worker” AI that amplifies human expertise rather than eliminating the people who possess it. In science, this means using AI to expand researchers’ capacity to formulate hypotheses, interrogate evidence and challenge assumptions not pursuing the premature fantasy of autonomous machine scientists. Until agents can reason seriously about evidence, refutation and uncertainty, AI will remain far better at convincingly imitating the visible production of research than at genuinely reproducing the intellectual process through which reliable knowledge is created.

sábado, 22 de agosto de 2026

Ensino superior: projeções de procura até 2029 num curso fundamental e uma área emergente entre os imperativos do futuro

 

A imagem supra mostra a evolução das colocações na primeira fase no curso de engenharia civil ao longo dos últimos 21 anos, onde é evidente que 2026 representa um ano de viragem traduzido por uma forte recuperação da procura deste curso. O número de colocados nesta 1.ª fase aumenta de 571 para 670, correspondendo a mais 99 alunos num único ano (+17,3%), com crescimento simultâneo no ensino universitário, de 428 para 496 (+15,9%), e ainda mais expressivo no politécnico, de 143 para 174 (+21,7%).Particularmente positivo é o facto desta expansão não resultar apenas do aumento global do número das vagas, mas ser acompanhada por taxas de ocupação bastante elevadas nas principais escolas e, em vários casos, por uma subida das notas de entrada, sinal evidente de um reforço efetivo da atratividade do curso de engenharia civil. A UPorto apresenta a nota do último colocado mais elevada do país (15,9 valores), seguida pelo UPol do Porto (15,2 valores) e pela Universidade do Minho (15,1 valores), que assim relegam o Instituto Superior Técnico para o 3º lugar nacional.

A imagem referida apresenta ainda dois cenários de evolução para os próximos três anos. Num cenário moderado, baseado numa continuação linear da recuperação recente, o número total de alunos colocados na 1.ª fase poderá ultrapassar a barreira dos 800 em 2029. Num segundo cenário, mais dinâmico, baseado na taxa média de crescimento observada nos últimos anos, poderá aproximar-se dos 900 colocados. Não se trata, naturalmente, apenas de previsões, mas de exercícios prospetivos que ajudam a perceber a dimensão que a recuperação da procura poderá assumir caso a tendência recente se consolide.

E não é certamente por acaso que isso esteja a acontecer precisamente agora, pois a necessidade de engenheiros civis tende a aumentar numa altura em que o nosso país enfrenta simultaneamente o envelhecimento da profissão, uma grave crise habitacional, enormes necessidades de reabilitação de edifícios e infraestruturas e uma adaptação cada vez mais urgente às consequências cada vez mais severas, frequentes e dispendiosas das alterações climáticas. Sobre esta procura futura, reproduzo abaixo o conteúdo de um email que enviei em fevereiro do corrente ano acerca do futuro da Engenharia Civil em Portugal.

Nele se percebe que a questão decisiva já não é se Portugal vai precisar de mais engenheiros civis. Vai certamente. A questão é saber se as escolas de Engenharia Civil serão capazes de aproveitar esta mudança de ciclo para formar os profissionais de que o país realmente necessitará, engenheiros civis preparados para um mundo muito diferente daquele para o qual a profissão foi desenhada no século passado, uma realidade marcada por escassez de recursos, alterações climáticas, eventos extremos, e exigências crescentes de resiliência. 

Acresce que, ao contrário de outras áreas da engenharia, a Engenharia Civil é uma das menos vulneráveis à substituição pela IA, já que lida com sistemas físicos onde os erros não provocam apenas falhas técnicas, podem destruir cidades e matar milhares de pessoas. A IA poderá apoiar cálculos e modelos, mas não conseguirá substituir os engenheiros civis que tem de tomar decisões em contexto de incerteza, perante riscos estruturais, sísmicos, hidráulicos e outros e assumem, durante décadas, a responsabilidade legal pelas infraestruturas de que depende a própria sociedade.

PS - A urgente necessidade de antecipar o futuro da Engenharia Civil constitui, aliás, um pequeno exemplo de uma questão civilizacional muito mais ampla que discuti noutro contexto. Entre os cinco imperativos que aí propus para orientar o progresso tecnológico, está precisamente a capacidade de conhecer não apenas o mundo que existe, mas também aquele que está a emergir. Aproveito, por isso, para divulgar que, há poucos dias, a conhecida editora Elsevier aprovou uma proposta minha para a segunda edição de um livro dedicado precisamente a um dos temas emergentes da área da Engenharia Civil. https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2022/07/o-contributo-da-investigacao-na-area-da.html


_________________________________________________________
De: F. Pacheco Torgal 
Enviado: 21 de fevereiro de 2026 09:32
Assunto: O futuro da Engenharia Civil em Portugal ?
 
Se, ainda antes dos inúmeros estragos causados pelos sucessivos comboios de tempestades que arrasaram um grande número de edifícios e infraestruturas em Portugal, o actual bastonário da Ordem dos Engenheiros já denunciava que o número anual de aposentados na área da engenharia civil superava o número de diplomados, uma situação já de si grave num país atolado numa crise habitacional, então a situação torna-se agora muito mais preocupante, pois os elevados danos provocados pelas referidas tempestades levarão vários anos a reparar, durante os quais ainda mais se agravará o referido défice de engenheiros civis. Será isto apenas azar dos Távoras?
E o que é que os cursos de engenharia civil não fizeram, ou não foram capazes de fazer, para que o crescimento deste curso não se ficasse apenas por um valor residual de 3% ao ano, correspondente a um total de colocados inferior a seis centenas, quando antes de 2011 este curso acolhia na primeira fase de cada ano mais de 1400 alunos ?  Alguém consegue compreender, que por exemplo o curso de engenharia civil da universidade de Coimbra, onde me diplomei há várias décadas atrás, quando então aquele curso recebia mais de uma centena de alunos logo na primeira fase, não consiga agora captar nem sequer metade disso e nem sequer consegue ultrapassar o número de alunos captados pelo Politécnico do Porto ou pelo Politécnico de Lisboa ?
E será que a formação em engenharia civil necessária para enfrentar o tal futuro de catástrofes permanentes, de que falou há poucos dias o catedrático Ottmar Edenhofer, presidente do conselho científico consultivo europeu sobre alterações climáticas, será aquela pouco inspirada, manifestamente insuficiente, de que falou na semana passada um antigo bastonário ao semanário Expresso, uma engenharia civil praticamente igual à do passado, mas com umas alterações mínimas, relacionadas como aumento da capacidade das coberturas resistirem a ventos de pelo menos 150 km/h, e que hoje novamente os jornalistas do Expresso repetem de forma indigente, certamente por acharem que não há neste país na área da engenharia civil quem possa dar melhores conselhos?

Ou será muito mais provável que os jornalistas do Expresso tenham dado provas de negligência ou até de incompetência, pois um Engenheiro Civil que se diplomou durante a longínqua década de 70 e que nunca foi sequer especialista em estruturas não é definitivamente o profissional mais indicado para dar conselhos do que deverá ser a engenharia civil capaz de acautelar um futuro de catástrofes climáticas, ignorando que nas universidades de Lisboa, Minho e Porto, se produz investigação na área da engenharia civil, que no último ano foi capaz de superar a produzida nas melhores universidades Alemãs e que talvez nessas universidades haja especialistas dessa área que possam dar conselhos cientificamente mais robustos?

Aproveito esta ocasião para recomendar a leitura de um interessante artigo, que não certamente por acaso faz parte das referências de um capítulo de um livro que estou a actualmente a concluir e onde se fica a saber alguma coisa sobre a resposta à pergunta supra e do qual reproduzo um breve trecho: "In a century shaped by climate disruption, resource scarcity, and cascading hazards, structural safety can no longer be confined to the binary question of collapse under a rare event....The profession must adopt a new design ethos: one that values performance over prescription, flexibility over excess, and resilience over redundancy... To meet this moment, engineering education, professional standards, and institutional missions must adapt. Future (civil) engineers must be trained not just in mechanics but in climate science, data analytics, stakeholder communication, and sustainable design thinking. Codes and contracts must reward recovery capacity and carbon efficiency, not just compliance...."

terça-feira, 18 de agosto de 2026

Civilizational Futures: Five Normative Imperatives for a Science-Based Civilization

 

Seven years ago, in a post on the role of academia in the transition towards a Type I civilization, I argued that universities should recover something of their older civilizational mission the pursuit of Truth, Good and Beauty and help form the kind of citizens capable of building a more scientifically advanced, tolerant and genuinely planetary civilization. That argument was principally about what academia could contribute to the next stage of human development. Seven years later, the question has become considerably larger. Artificial intelligence, biotechnology, longevity research and our rapidly expanding ability to understand and alter both ourselves and the planet are beginning to give humanity powers that make the old discussion about education, economic progress or even sustainability seem incomplete. The question is no longer only how we reach a more advanced civilization. It is what kind of civilization and ultimately what kind of humanity we need to become.

For most of human history, we accepted as part of the human condition whatever we were powerless to change. Disease had to be endured, pain given meaning, ageing accepted as destiny, poverty treated as inevitable, intelligence distributed by the accidents of birth. We created religions, philosophies and institutions to make the unavoidable bearable. But some of those frontiers have already fallen, and others are beginning to move. For the first time, a species possesses tools capable not merely of changing the world around it, but of altering some of the conditions that have always defined what it means to be human. We manipulate genes, model proteins, build new forms of intelligence, observe ecosystems at planetary scale and place enormous quantities of human knowledge within reach of almost anyone. These powers do not tell us what to do with themGreater capability can liberate or dominate, distribute opportunity or concentrate it, a tension I had already explored in a previous post on AI, inequality and kleptocracyThe challenge, then, is not merely to move faster, before expanding power outruns the wisdom required to govern it, but to decide where humanity should go. Five verbs define that destination: Liberate. Know. Care. Build. Restore.

1 - Liberate

The first promise of a more advanced civilization must address what every person feels in their own body. We suffer, become ill, age, lose those we love, and spend much of our existence securing the material conditions necessary to remain alive. I had already touched on this wider question in a 2019 post, when reflecting on whether universities should prepare people not only for work, but also for life itself even, ultimately, for dying better. On 16 October 1846, in an amphitheatre in Boston, a man underwent surgery and did not scream. Until then, surgery often meant being cut open while conscious; pain was not a complication but part of the procedure. Then came a demonstration that something long treated as inseparable from existence could simply be prevented. That is the mental leap we must learn to repeat. Chronic pain, devastating depression, neurodegenerative disease, inherited disorders and many other forms of suffering have mechanisms, and what has mechanisms can be investigated. New computational tools, biotechnology and increasingly powerful forms of scientific analysis can accelerate that investigation, but the civilizational principle is older and larger than any particular technology, what can be understood may cease to be fate.

Liberation also means liberating intelligence. Srinivasa Ramanujan became known because an extraordinary mind managed to break through barriers of geography, poverty and institutions, but the important question is how many Ramanujans we never knew. How many potential scientists, mathematicians, artists and inventors disappeared without ever receiving the education or opportunity necessary to discover what they could become? Some of that loss may begin long before talent has the chance to reveal itself, as I noted in a post on the developmental effects of childhood povertyAnd how much intelligence is still lost when the environments meant to cultivate it make caution safer than intellectual risk, a paradox I revisited in a previous reflection on scientific progress and failure? 

Against this continuing waste of human potential, I argued in a 2023 post on emerging scientific and technological game changers that increasingly powerful AI tools could make human knowledge universally accessible. For the first time, it is conceivable that almost every child could gain access to knowledge, personalized teaching and intellectual guidance once reserved for a tiny, exceptionally fortunate minority a possibility for which early experimental evidence is now beginning to emerge. The goal must be not merely to place answers within reach, but to ensure that AI serves as intellectual scaffolding, elevating human thought beyond what individuals could achieve alone while cultivating stronger, more independent minds, rather than a humanity increasingly incapable of thinking without its machines. Every cognitive technology should therefore face a demanding test, after years of using it, are people more capable without it, or less? Tools that help people ask better questions, reason more deeply and learn more rapidly expand human agency; those that make independent thought increasingly unnecessary ultimately erode it a danger now beginning to attract empirical attention

The next form of liberation concerns the most finite resource we posess: time. Automation may eventually weaken one of civilization’s oldest equations, that being born means selling most of the hours of one’s life in order to survive, an equation whose absurdity, as I recalled, Fuller had already exposed decades ago. I explored the same possibility more recently in a post on human purpose in a post-work worldThis does not mean the end of work, ambition or effort. It means the possibility of working because something deserves to be built, discovered, created or cared for rather than merely because the alternative is poverty. The measure of a civilization should not be only how much it can produce, but how much of a human life it can return to its owner hours no longer consumed by necessity, but available for creation, learning, care, love, curiosity and meaning. Progress reaches its highest form when it gives people back the one resource no wealth can replace, their time.

2 - Know

Liberation requires understanding, and the second great human adventure is therefore directed towards the largest territory we have ever encountered, the unknown. We do not fully understand consciousness, how matter first became life, whether life exists elsewhere, what most of the Universe consists of, how to cure countless diseases or what the limits of intelligence may be. Beyond these known mysteries lie questions we have not yet learned to ask, perhaps even about what it means for the Universe to have produced minds capable of contemplating itThat hierarchy of admiration had already troubled me in a 2019 post, where I questioned what our chosen heroes reveal about the values we collectively reward. The concern was already explicit in a postwritten amid the extraordinary scientific mobilisation against Covid-19, where I questioned a culture capable of reserving its greatest admiration for those who kick a ball while treating the discovery of a life-saving vaccine almost as the mere fulfilment of professional dutyAs I argued in a 2021 post contrasting Ronaldo with figures such as Gauss, Euler and Schrödinger, a civilization that lavishes admiration and cultural prestige on spectacle while relegating those who expand knowledge and human possibility to the margins has not yet learned to recognize what truly drives progress and expands civilization’s horizons. A genuinely advanced civilization will have to reorder that hierarchy of admiration and place intellectual discovery at the centre of its collective aspirations, ultimately embracing the systematic conquest of ignorance.

I returned to this argument more provocatively on January 21, 2024, in an email I distributed to several thousand colleagues, suggesting that researchers should occupy "the zenith of the societal hierarchy" in the civilization of tomorrow. The underlying point was not occupational vanity, but a reversal of civilizational prestige. Admiration is itself a form of instruction, whatever a society chooses to celebrate, its children learn to desire and eventually to become. A genuinely advanced society would therefore reveal its values not only through what it funds, but through whom and what it chooses to admire. Perhaps the deepest measure of a civilization is what it chooses to celebrate. Ours must learn to honour discovery, healing and creation with the same intensity it now devotes to spectacle: the disease finally conquered, the devastated landscape brought back to life, the new continent of knowledge opened to humanity. One day, such achievements should stand among the defining triumphs of our civilization, commanding not merely attention, but collective wonder, gratitude and awe.

Here artificial intelligence may genuinely become transformative, as I had already anticipated in a previous post on its potential to radically accelerate scientific discovery. Science is still carried out by millions of researchers who can read only a tiny fraction of the literature relevant to their work, while knowledge remains fragmented across disciplines, languages and institutions. One field may already contain the method another needs without either realizing it. AI systems may increasingly connect papers, datasets, failed experiments, competing hypotheses and unresolved questions, identifying contradictions, suggesting decisive experiments, transferring methods between disciplines and revealing relationships that no individual researcher could hold simultaneously in mind. Combined with new experimental technologies, this could substantially accelerate discovery. But the ideal should not be an oracle that supplies answers. It should be something more valuable, a machinery for producing better questions.

This power carries an equally important danger. A humanity that thinks together can think wrongly together. Coordination does not produce truth; it produces scale. Systems optimized for convenience, agreement or engagement can turn error into consensus more rapidly than any previous communication technology, while creating dangerous illusions of understanding.The intellectual infrastructure of the future must therefore preserve contradiction, uncertainty and dissent rather than smoothing them away. This also requires intellectual independence and a willingness to challenge power, a responsibility I had reflected on in a previous post on the duty of intellectuals to speak truth to power and expose falsehoods. It should make competing hypotheses visible, expose the evidence against dominant conclusions and allow reasoning to be reconstructed rather than merely accepted. A good AI increases our ability to disagree with it; a bad AI increases our dependence on believing it.

The ambition is not a hive mind. Humanity should become better connected without becoming intellectually uniform. Throughout history, brilliant minds have been separated by geography, language, class and discipline, a problem I had already approached in a previous post on interaction as an existential principleHumanity has never thought with all of humanity, not because it lacked intelligence, but because it could not connect that intelligence without losing much of its diversity along the way. That barrier is beginning to weaken. A scientist can increasingly find an obscure result produced on another continent; a doctor in an isolated region can reach expertise previously concentrated in a handful of institutions; people without a common language can communicate directly; a child born far from any great university can approach the frontier of knowledge. The point is not that everyone should think alike. It is that no important mind should remain isolated from an important idea simply because of where it was born.

3 - Care

Knowledge creates power, but power without moral expansion can simply make us more efficient at being what we already are. The history of moral progress is, in large part, the history of boundaries that once seemed natural and later became indefensible. Family, tribe, citizenship, race, sex and class have all been used to determine who deserved protection and who did not. It would be extraordinary arrogance to believe that the circle of moral concern has finally reached its perfect boundary with us. Animals capable of pain, fear, attachment and pleasure do not become mere objects because they belong to another species, and ecosystems are more than inventories of resources awaiting human use. As our capacity to affect other forms of life grows, so must our willingness to ask what we owe them. A civilization should not be judged only by the extent of the world it can control, but also by the breadth of the world it chooses to protect. The expansion of human power must therefore be accompanied by an expansion of human concern. .As noted in a previous post, cooperation, reciprocity and mutual aid are themselves part of that shared inheritance, suggesting that competition has never been the only force shaping human possibility.

Care must also mean refusing to accept as inevitable forms of human deprivation that our growing power makes increasingly avoidable. A child should not have their health, education, intellectual development or prospects for a meaningful life determined primarily by the accident of where they were born or by the wealth of their parents. I had already explored this unequal geography of concern in a post titled "Inside the Great Black Hole: The Untermensch of the 21st Century". I later touched on the darker consequences of such inequality, discussing evidence that extreme disparities in income can contribute to domestic terrorism and recalling how deprivation, exclusion and the absence of education and meaningful opportunity can become powerful forces of radicalization and social fracture. A more advanced civilization must therefore understand that widening human possibility is not merely an act of compassion or justice; it is also part of building societies in which fewer lives are abandoned to despair, fewer talents are wasted, and fewer people are left with so little stake in the future that destruction begins to appear more meaningful than participation in it.

As civilization becomes richer in knowledge, energy, medicine and productive capacity, the moral defence of extreme deprivation becomes correspondingly weaker. This tension between human flourishing, distributive justice and ecological limits was already implicit in a previous reflection on whether a good life for all is compatible with planetary boundaries.The same concern extends to extreme concentrations of wealth and their disproportionate environmental consequences, a connection I explored more provocatively in a post titled "Carbon Manslaughter: Holding Billionaires Accountable for Their Role in Accelerating Climate Catastrophes". Before that I had reflected on a troubling asymmetry of climate adaptation, those who benefited most from an unsustainable order may be best able to shield themselves from its consequences

I had also briefly touched on a related question in another post on the possible wider role of wealth taxation.The same principle should shape the transition to a sustainable economy: as I also noted in a previous post on carbon revenues and inequality, climate policy can be designed not merely to reduce environmental risk, but to distribute its costs and benefits more fairlyThe purpose is not to make every life identical, nor to abolish difference, ambition or reward, but to establish a civilizational floor beneath which no human being should be allowed to fall simply because they began life on the wrong side of geography or fortune. Progress should therefore be judged not only by triumph of a fortunate few, but by how much preventable suffering, wasted talent and unrealized human potential it refuses to accept.

Care also means remembering what is already worth preserving. We are not trying to build a new humanity because we despise the present one. There are things in this first version of humanity that deserve to survive every version that follows, unexpected laughter around a table, friendship with no economic purpose, music, curiosity, tenderness, courage, a parent awake beside a sick child, the pleasure of understanding a difficult idea, the capacity to love, and wonder before something beautiful that does not need to justify its existence. These are not sentimental decorations around the serious business of civilization; they are part of what makes civilization worth advancing in the first place. No increase in intelligence would compensate for losing them, and no longevity would be a victory if it merely prolonged empty lives. We do not want to transcend humanity by eliminating what makes it human. We want to enlarge what allows it to flourish.

4 — Build

There are people who will be profoundly affected by our decisions and who cannot answer us. They have not yet been born. They do not vote, protest or demand compensation, yet they will inherit the climate we alter, the technologies we release, the knowledge we preserve, the resources we consume and the species we allow to survive. We exercise power over them while they can exercise none over us, and that creates profound moral responsibility. I had already questioned, in a 2019 post on civilization’s long-term trajectories, the convenient habit of ending moral responsibility at 2100. There is a particular greatness in that act: the ability to value an outcome that belongs to people who will live after us.

We need to recover that capacity. We should plant trees whose full shade we will never see, preserve species for children not yet born, fund research whose conclusion may belong to another generation, build institutions capable of surviving their founders and prevent catastrophes for which no one will thank us precisely because they never happened. Being a good ancestor should become one of the highest forms of human prestige. That horizon may, however, extend disquietingly far into the future: one 2022 estimate placed humanity’s arrival at a Type I civilization no earlier than 2371, a distinctly pessimistic projection that only strengthens the case for accelerating that civilizational transition. 

The concern was not new. In a 2020 post on humanity’s right and wrong priorities,” I had questioned the enormous resources devoted to military arsenals while climate action, sustainable development and other fundamental human needs remained chronically underfunded. I returned to the same problem in a December 31, 2024 post on the disconnect between engineering innovation and humanity’s critical challenges, asking why so much technological ingenuity remains directed towards short-term achievements while humanity’s most consequential long-term challenges remain insufficiently addressed. It also means resisting the neglect of distant but potentially catastrophic risks, a concern I raised here, about whether governments and academia devote attention proportionate to the threats civilization faces. A civilization that thinks only in electoral cycles, financial quarters or individual lifetimes could be extraordinarily powerful but temporally immature. Scientific modelling and increasingly sophisticated forecasting can help make distant consequences more visible, but no model can substitute for the moral decision to take those consequences seriously.

Before approving an irreversible technology, transforming an ecosystem or making decisions whose consequences may persist for generations, we should therefore ask not only what they cost or deliver today but which futures they close and which futures they keep openThat concern had already surfaced in a previous post reflecting on the risks of continuing to test planetary limits while assuming catastrophe can still be avoided. Thinking in this way does not mean that the unborn should rule the living. It means recognizing that the absence of their voice does not erase the reality of their interests. The future is not empty simply because its inhabitants have not yet arrived.

Building for the long term also means preserving knowledge. A civilization that hopes to last for centuries cannot allow each generation to begin intellectually almost from zero, nor can it entrust its collective memory entirely to fragile institutions or opaque technological systems. Knowledge must remain accessible, distributed, intelligible and contestable. The discoveries, failures, arguments and cultural achievements of one generation are part of the inheritance of the next. We are not the owners of civilization. We are its temporary custodians.

5 - Restore

It is not enough to stop destroying. There is too much to repair. For decades, environmentalism has largely spoken the language of less, emit less, consume less, destroy less. Much of that restraint is necessary, but no civilization falls in love with a future defined only by losing more slowly. We need a positive ambition: rivers alive again, forests returned to degraded land, whales returning to seas from which they nearly vanished, reefs rebuilt, soils recovered, species brought back from the edge of extinction. We should not aim merely to leave our descendants what remains after us. We should aim to give them a planet more alive than the one we inherited. Nor should restoration be confused with simply recreating an imagined past: in a changing climate, what it means to restore a living system must itself remain adaptive.

The same technological civilization that became extraordinarily effective at extracting from nature can become equally capable of repairing what it has damaged. Satellites, sensors, ecological modelling, biotechnology, new materials, precision agriculture and other tools can help us understand complex systems and intervene with growing sophistication. But technology is only the means. Technological repair cannot substitute for preserving living systems in the first place. The need for a more integrated regenerative economy was already implicit in a previous post on circularity, eco-innovation and climate mitigation. The deeper transformation must be cultural: restoration should cease to be regarded as a defensive response to failure and become an expression of progress in its own right. The question would no longer be only how much damage we avoided, but how much fertility, biodiversity and resilience we were able to recover how much richer in living possibilities the world became through deliberate human action.

Restoration could become one of the great human adventures of the future. Civilizations have traditionally celebrated what they could conquer, extract, build or dominate; a more mature civilization could take equal pride in what it was capable of healing and returning to abundance. Places once written off as irreversibly degraded could become flourishing landscapes again, and what one generation remembered as loss could become ordinary experience for the next. Its greatest monuments would not necessarily be towers, bridges or machines, but living inheritances whose value increases long after their creators are gone. Perhaps one of the noblest uses of human power is not merely to reduce the mark we leave on the Earth, but to ensure that life itself flourishes more richly because we were here.

segunda-feira, 17 de agosto de 2026

Quem é, afinal, a invisível investigadora Ana Marta Gonçalves que o jornal Público não foi manifestamente capaz de descobrir ?

 

https://www.publico.pt/2026/08/16/sociedade/noticia/ranking-xangai-universidades-minho-lisboa-porto-descem-coimbra-sobe-2185193

A edição impressa do jornal Público noticia hoje o desempenho das universidades portuguesas no prestigiado ranking Shanghai, sob o título Ranking de Xangai: universidades do Minho, Lisboa e Porto descem, Coimbra sobe”. Vide artigo acessível no link supra. A análise agora oferecida aos leitores daquele jornal é, porém, de uma inacreditável pobreza franciscana, sobretudo quando comparada com a análise muito pouco suave, mas incomparavelmente mais exaustiva e substancialmente mais esclarecedora, que foi divulgada ontem aqui https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2026/08/o-ranking-shanghai-de-2026-mostra-o.html

O jornal Público poderia, pelo menos, ter procurado saber quem foi afinal a investigadora que permitiu à Universidade de Coimbra subir no ranking apesar de irónicamente ter piorado vários indicadores relativamente a 2025. O comunicado enviado pela própria Universidade de Coimbra à imprensa também não revelou esse nome, silêncio que diz bastante sobre a forma como algumas instituições gostam de celebrar resultados colectivos, enquanto tornam convenientemente invisíveis aqueles que mais contribuíram para os produzir. Mas a omissão do jornal é ainda menos desculpável, pois bastaria apenas algum trabalho de investigação, em vez da mera reprodução da enviesada narrativa institucional, para chegar a essa resposta.

A investigadora chama-se Ana Marta dos Santos Mendes Gonçalves e é investigadora auxiliar. Foi a sua entrada no indicador dos investigadores altamente citados que evitou que a Universidade de Coimbra sofresse uma queda superior a uma centena de lugares. E daqui nasce uma segunda pergunta, talvez ainda mais incómoda, como se explica que uma investigadora com um currículo científico superior ao de numerosos professores associados e mesmo de não poucos professores catedráticos, continue ainda hoje apenas na categoria de investigadora auxiliar? 

Será que a resposta se encontra, nos próprios critérios de contratação e promoção da academia portuguesa, onde demasiadas vezes a deferência, a obediência e o proverbial lambe-botismo parecem valer mais do que a excelência científica, a autonomia intelectual e o reconhecimento internacional? Uma realidade que um conhecido investigador português, vencedor do Prémio Pessoa (que ocupa a segunda posição nesta lista de cientistas) e que além disso integra o júri do importante e prestigiado Prémio Gulbenkian para a Humanidade, sintetizou de forma particularmente lúcida e devastadora como uma “burocracia cuidadosamente arquitetada para defender os interesses da mediocridade instalada”.

PS - Esperemos que a supracitada investigadora Ana Marta Gonçalves não se canse de receber tão pouco reconhecimento, académico, institucional e também material (porque no nosso país um investigador no inicio de carreira ganha o mesmo que os motoristas do primeiro-ministro), e não decida seguir o caminho de outra investigadora da mesma universidade, Inês Trindade, que trocou Portugal pela academia sueca, caso que recordei num post de 25 de Abril de 2025 https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2025/04/sera-que-aumentar-actual-inflaccao-de.html ou aqueles investigadores, também da universidade de Coimbra, que comentei num post mais recente com o interessante e bastante revelador título: "Uma "brilhante" estratégia Portuguesa - Empobrecer orgulhosamente ao mesmo tempo que ajuda ricos a ficarem mais ricos" https://19-pacheco-torgal-19.blogspot.com/2026/04/uma-brilhante-estrategia-portuguesa.html